An export restriction does not have to stop a mine or refinery to interrupt production elsewhere. Material can remain available…
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Critical Materials Risk Has Changed Since 2023
In 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy mapped critical-materials risk for the 2025 to 2035 period. It remains a useful starting point. But the conditions behind that map have changed. Export controls have expanded. Demand from AI infrastructure, defense production, electrification, and data centers is increasing. Processing and refining remain concentrated in a small number of countries and facilities. For many manufacturers, material risk is now moving faster than annual sourcing plans. …